CovidV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 000179

Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13-23, 2020.

Identifieur interne : 000179 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000178; suivant : 000180

Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13-23, 2020.

Auteurs : Kimberlyn Roosa [États-Unis] ; Yiseul Lee [États-Unis] ; Ruiyan Luo [États-Unis] ; Alexander Kirpich [États-Unis] ; Richard Rothenberg [États-Unis] ; James M. Hyman [États-Unis] ; Ping Yan [Canada] ; Gerardo Chowell [États-Unis]

Source :

Journal of clinical medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.

RBID : pubmed:32098289

Abstract

The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread within and outside of China, despite several social distancing measures implemented by the Chinese government. Limited epidemiological data are available, and recent changes in case definition and reporting further complicate our understanding of the impact of the epidemic, particularly in the epidemic's epicenter. Here we use previously validated phenomenological models to generate short-term forecasts of cumulative reported cases in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China. Using daily reported cumulative case data up until 13 February 2020 from the National Health Commission of China, we report 5- and 10-day ahead forecasts of cumulative case reports. Specifically, we generate forecasts using a generalized logistic growth model, the Richards growth model, and a sub-epidemic wave model, which have each been previously used to forecast outbreaks due to different infectious diseases. Forecasts from each of the models suggest the outbreaks may be nearing extinction in both Guangdong and Zhejiang; however, the sub-epidemic model predictions also include the potential for further sustained transmission, particularly in Zhejiang. Our 10-day forecasts across the three models predict an additional 65-81 cases (upper bounds: 169-507) in Guangdong and an additional 44-354 (upper bounds: 141-875) cases in Zhejiang by February 23, 2020. In the best-case scenario, current data suggest that transmission in both provinces is slowing down.

DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020596
PubMed: 32098289

Affiliations:

Canada, États-Unis

Le document en format XML

<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13-23, 2020.</title>
<author><name sortKey="Roosa, Kimberlyn" sort="Roosa, Kimberlyn" uniqKey="Roosa K" first="Kimberlyn" last="Roosa">Kimberlyn Roosa</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA 30302</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lee, Yiseul" sort="Lee, Yiseul" uniqKey="Lee Y" first="Yiseul" last="Lee">Yiseul Lee</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA 30302</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Luo, Ruiyan" sort="Luo, Ruiyan" uniqKey="Luo R" first="Ruiyan" last="Luo">Ruiyan Luo</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA 30302</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kirpich, Alexander" sort="Kirpich, Alexander" uniqKey="Kirpich A" first="Alexander" last="Kirpich">Alexander Kirpich</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA 30302</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rothenberg, Richard" sort="Rothenberg, Richard" uniqKey="Rothenberg R" first="Richard" last="Rothenberg">Richard Rothenberg</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA 30302</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hyman, James M" sort="Hyman, James M" uniqKey="Hyman J" first="James M" last="Hyman">James M. Hyman</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Center for Computational Science, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Center for Computational Science, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>LA 70118</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yan, Ping" sort="Yan, Ping" uniqKey="Yan P" first="Ping" last="Yan">Ping Yan</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>ON K1A 0K9</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA 30302</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno>
<date when="2020">2020</date>
<idno type="RBID">pubmed:32098289</idno>
<idno type="pmid">32098289</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.3390/jcm9020596</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000469</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000469</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000469</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000469</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000165</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000165</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000938</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000938</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000938</idno>
<idno type="wicri:doubleKey">2077-0383:2020:Roosa K:short:term:forecasts</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000181</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000179</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000179</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13-23, 2020.</title>
<author><name sortKey="Roosa, Kimberlyn" sort="Roosa, Kimberlyn" uniqKey="Roosa K" first="Kimberlyn" last="Roosa">Kimberlyn Roosa</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA 30302</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lee, Yiseul" sort="Lee, Yiseul" uniqKey="Lee Y" first="Yiseul" last="Lee">Yiseul Lee</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA 30302</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Luo, Ruiyan" sort="Luo, Ruiyan" uniqKey="Luo R" first="Ruiyan" last="Luo">Ruiyan Luo</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA 30302</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kirpich, Alexander" sort="Kirpich, Alexander" uniqKey="Kirpich A" first="Alexander" last="Kirpich">Alexander Kirpich</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA 30302</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rothenberg, Richard" sort="Rothenberg, Richard" uniqKey="Rothenberg R" first="Richard" last="Rothenberg">Richard Rothenberg</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA 30302</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hyman, James M" sort="Hyman, James M" uniqKey="Hyman J" first="James M" last="Hyman">James M. Hyman</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Center for Computational Science, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Center for Computational Science, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>LA 70118</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yan, Ping" sort="Yan, Ping" uniqKey="Yan P" first="Ping" last="Yan">Ping Yan</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>ON K1A 0K9</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA 30302</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Journal of clinical medicine</title>
<idno type="ISSN">2077-0383</idno>
<imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread within and outside of China, despite several social distancing measures implemented by the Chinese government. Limited epidemiological data are available, and recent changes in case definition and reporting further complicate our understanding of the impact of the epidemic, particularly in the epidemic's epicenter. Here we use previously validated phenomenological models to generate short-term forecasts of cumulative reported cases in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China. Using daily reported cumulative case data up until 13 February 2020 from the National Health Commission of China, we report 5- and 10-day ahead forecasts of cumulative case reports. Specifically, we generate forecasts using a generalized logistic growth model, the Richards growth model, and a sub-epidemic wave model, which have each been previously used to forecast outbreaks due to different infectious diseases. Forecasts from each of the models suggest the outbreaks may be nearing extinction in both Guangdong and Zhejiang; however, the sub-epidemic model predictions also include the potential for further sustained transmission, particularly in Zhejiang. Our 10-day forecasts across the three models predict an additional 65-81 cases (upper bounds: 169-507) in Guangdong and an additional 44-354 (upper bounds: 141-875) cases in Zhejiang by February 23, 2020. In the best-case scenario, current data suggest that transmission in both provinces is slowing down.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list><country><li>Canada</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
</list>
<tree><country name="États-Unis"><noRegion><name sortKey="Roosa, Kimberlyn" sort="Roosa, Kimberlyn" uniqKey="Roosa K" first="Kimberlyn" last="Roosa">Kimberlyn Roosa</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name>
<name sortKey="Hyman, James M" sort="Hyman, James M" uniqKey="Hyman J" first="James M" last="Hyman">James M. Hyman</name>
<name sortKey="Kirpich, Alexander" sort="Kirpich, Alexander" uniqKey="Kirpich A" first="Alexander" last="Kirpich">Alexander Kirpich</name>
<name sortKey="Lee, Yiseul" sort="Lee, Yiseul" uniqKey="Lee Y" first="Yiseul" last="Lee">Yiseul Lee</name>
<name sortKey="Luo, Ruiyan" sort="Luo, Ruiyan" uniqKey="Luo R" first="Ruiyan" last="Luo">Ruiyan Luo</name>
<name sortKey="Rothenberg, Richard" sort="Rothenberg, Richard" uniqKey="Rothenberg R" first="Richard" last="Rothenberg">Richard Rothenberg</name>
</country>
<country name="Canada"><noRegion><name sortKey="Yan, Ping" sort="Yan, Ping" uniqKey="Yan P" first="Ping" last="Yan">Ping Yan</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Wicri/Sante/explor/CovidV1/Data/Main/Exploration

HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000179 | SxmlIndent | more

HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000179 | SxmlIndent | more

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

{{Explor lien
   |wiki=    Wicri/Sante
   |area=    CovidV1
   |flux=    Main
   |étape=   Exploration
   |type=    RBID
   |clé=     pubmed:32098289
   |texte=   Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13-23, 2020.
}}

Pour générer des pages wiki

HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i   -Sk "pubmed:32098289" \
       | HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd   \
       | NlmPubMed2Wicri -a CovidV1

This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33.
Data generation: Fri Mar 27 18:14:15 2020. Site generation: Sun Jan 31 15:15:08 2021

Serveur d'exploration Covid

Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13-23, 2020.

Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13-23, 2020.

Source :

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

Pour générer des pages wiki

	Serveur d'exploration Covid
	Attention, ce site est en cours de développement ! Attention, site généré par des moyens informatiques à partir de corpus bruts. Les informations ne sont donc pas validées.